PAKISTAN'S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATION

The fresh spell of political instability and poor law & order situation would not only reverse the course of economic recovery and growth, but would also hurt the short to medium term outlook of the real sector in 2010, which is already under severe crisis due to unabated power outages.
In addition to that, the revival of foreign investors’ confidence on Pakistan’s economy would not be an easy task for the economic managers in the context of new wave of terrorism that hit Karachi on 28 December, 2009 on the occasion of 10th Muharram (Aushura).
It is important to mention here that the SBP and Asian Development Bank in its report have predicted a modest revival in Pakistan’s economic growth for FY2010, in an anticipation of good agricultural and industrial growth.
The performance of the industrial sector during fiscal year 2009 was affected largely by power shortages and uncertain law& order situation. Therefore, it appears that any recovery going forward would largely depend on improving security situation and resolution of power crisis. The uncertain political situation could take heavy tool on government’s efforts to boost foreign inflows and to achieve projected growth rate in the industrial and agricultural sectors.
As per information on Pakistan economic conditions in financial year 2008, value of Pakistani rupee decreased in value because of political and economic instability. Pakistan is known to have one of fastest developing economies in world. Though it is a poor country, Economic conditions in Pakistan point out that growth rate has been better than global average growth rate.
Karachi Stock Exchange in 2009 experienced a great blow with five percent off in a single day. This has been recorded as worst single-day act in last 32 months. Political upheaval also forces economy of Pakistan to depend on International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Pakistan aims to reduce poverty, which is main concern for economic department of government. Focus is also given on betterment of infrastructure as well. Plans have been made to make more roads, dams and power generating plants so that people get more job openings and thereby help development.
There is no second opinion that the government met all such challenges to some extent with the help of external financing and macroeconomic stabilization program, initiated under an IMF-stand-By Arrangement.

WATER SHORTAGE: A GREAT THREAT TO PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY

Pakistan is currently in the midst of what some are saying is the worst water crisis the country has ever seen. The manner in which we have been used to handle our resources and national affairs, this disastrous occurrence was bound to take us over. Pakistan is using almost all its water resources today and no more is available.
According to a “2006 World Bank report”, however, Pakistan is fast moving from being a water stressed country to a water scarce country, mainly due to its high population growth, and water is becoming the key development issue.

The “Kalabagh” controversy started some 15 years back and during this period we did nothing but to concentrate on speech-making for or against Kalabagh. Although it was known that consensus on construction of a new reservoir above or below Kalabagh will take some time and when it somehow gets finalized then preparation of its feasibility, design and then construction all would involve not less than 15 years. One preference for Kalabagh is that its designs are prepared and even the tender documents is ready.
WAPDA has now come up with its dream of “vision 2025”. We talk of constructing projects like “Bhasha” Dam. Unfortunately, we think of Bhasha probably similar to a plaza. Had we continued the research and study efforts started way back within WAPDA, we by now would have achieved a level of knowledge whereby our dependency on foreign expertise had been minimal. But, we wasted all opportunities and chances. No we can do nothing but hold “Namaz- e- Istasqa”.

SUGAR FREE PAKISTAN

Well, undoubtedly Pakistan is a place where new records are set every day, but the recent crisis where the entire lot of country’s sugar disappeared is one of its kinds. In an agricultural country where sugar cane is a major crop, it is strange how the crisis shaped up. For a country wrapped up in an existential battle against extremists, the sugar crisis has attained unusual prominence.
Among the 105 countries of the world growing sugarcane, Pakistan ranks 4th in area, 14th in production and 60th in yield. Sugar consumption in Pakistan has been showing an increasing trend for the last 15 years. The current level of sugar prices in the country has not only affected the common person but also forced the Government to revise the progress of sugar industry to control the prices.
There has been clash between growers and millers over price. A study revealed that more than 65 per cent farmers have decreased the total area under cane production due to water shortage, behavior of the mills management, late payments, increased input cost, and diseases and rodent attack. The purchasing of excess stocks from mills and delayed payments to growers are bad aspects for the industry. Instead of checking the price hike, a free hand has been given to hoarders and profiteers, operators of the utilities stores for forcing consumers to buy other items if they sought sugar at controlled price.

The government has accused mill owners of hoarding to artificially send prices higher. But many of the mills are owned by some of Pakistan's most powerful politicians. In spite of the Supreme courts price fixture of Rs 40 per Kg it has been sold at a rate of around Rs 60 to 80 per Kg. Utility stores are also failed to provide enough amount and low rate sugar for the customers. While talking to reporters, Chairman Pakistan Sugar Mill Association, Iskandar Khan said, “Yes the sugar crises would further deepen in the country after the ending of current crushing season and on the other hand government is importing sugar at a time when its prices in international market are very high.”
There is a need to appoint an investigating committee to study the causes and suggest steps to renew the sugar sector. The committee should consist of experts from the agriculture, marketing, pricing, industry, sugar technology and the financial institutions. Agencies such as research and extension department should be directed to enhance the knowledge of growers through demonstration.

WHEAT FLOUR CRISIS DEEPENS IN PAKISTAN

Wheat and flour are very scarce and perhaps its shortage is unprecedented in the history of Pakistan. Even in Punjab that is called the food basket of Pakistan, harassed people are running from pillar to post but no easy flour is available. There is a blame game going on and the government is shifting responsibility to the millers for the existing shortage of flour. The government denies there is a shortage and has blamed smugglers and hoarders for worsening the problem.

It is really distressing to see old, weak people standing in queues just to get a flour bag but unfortunately in most cases, they don’t even get a chance to take a glimpse of flour. Government had ensured the nation that maximum supply of flour will be provided to them but that is not the case. God knows where the economic relief package of the coalition government has vanished.
The rising cost of wheat coupled with ongoing political instability in the country is causing a severe flour shortage in Pakistan. The ongoing energy shortages and hoarding of wheat are stated to be the main causes of the present worsening flour crisis in the country. Poor administration, high prices in international wheat market, role of speculators, and payment of subsidy and intervention in supply to the northern parts and interior villages of the country due to rains and snowfall are some other factors which fuelled the crisis. The load shedding has also affected the grinding of wheat in many parts of the country as most of the mills are not fully utilizing the capacity due to repeated power failure.

According to the WFP (World food program) stats, 38 per cent of Pakistanis are food insecure, and that basically means that they are not able to afford poverty line intake of 2,350 kcal per day. WFP also reveal that approximately 12.5 of wheat are wasted on way from field to the consumer whereas vegetable loss is 30 per cent.
So it is the need of hour that government should start working on war footings about extending the crop maximization plans to balance food price inflation and improvement in storage and harvesting-thrashing to control wastage of food. Government needs to understand that easy and cheap food availability, access and deliverance to everyone at everyplace is the key to their survival.

MEASURES TO ERADICATE ELECTRICITY CRISIS

The policy makers of Pakistan have so far failed to understand one thing. They do talk about making dams and setting up nuclear power plants but why do they not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy sources such as solar, windmill energy etc. They are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. Wind turbine is relatively fast to install whereas dams and nuclear plants take five to six years to complete and thermal power plants need two years at least. Similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap.
Pakistan has estimated as the world’s third largest coal reserves of 33 trillion tons in the south-eastern part of the country i.e. Thar. The available resources of the coal are equal to 400 billion barrels of oil. According to a Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (RCCI) press release, the figures were shared by the president of the chamber with the participants of seminar on Power Crisis. The chamber president said that the present resources of the coal could produce 20,000 megawatts electricity for 40 long years but the government had only been depending on hydro power to generate the electricity.
It hardly needs to be emphasized that electricity is the lifeline of national economy and the people at the large. The existing crisis can be addressed by the government by taking prompt measures and by public by taking conservation measures.

ELECTRICITY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

Energy is the fuel of a nation. The economic engine and the wheels of industry, agriculture and business need energy to move forward. Unfortunately in Pakistan, real solutions to meet the energy requirements of the nation have never been communicated or attained.
The latest and perhaps the most worrying crisis faced by the Pakistani nation these days is the shortage in supply of electricity. Though it has been more than a year since when the country is facing this crisis, but till now no proper solution has been made to this problem. The electric power shortage crisis in Pakistan is affecting economy and situation is getting worse day by day. Only 46% of the total population of the country has the facility of electricity but still the government is unable to manage a steady power to them.

Yet the systemic issues such as the failure to build new dams and previous Government’s inability to add even a single megawatt of new power to the grid during nine years of its rule, it seems that the present crisis is a result of bad management and the lack of foresight.The rising prices of oil products are also a major cause of power crisis in Pakistan where more than 60% of electricity is generated from furnace oil. The house hold sector is the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2% of total electricity consumption.

GETTING PAKISTAN OUT OF CRISIS

In the next few years Pakistanis need to make many significant choices otherwise international powers might dictate certain decisions as they see Pakistan as a failed state that exports “terrorists” and having nuclear weapons, has become a threat to world peace.
For Pakistanis to make sure that Pakistan not only survives but also grows and thrives by becoming a progressive and democratic state, they need to take serious steps. The gap between the rich and the poor should be decreased. The Pakistani Constitution has to become secular and humanistic so that all citizens, especially women and minorities have equal rights and the blasphemy law is abolished.
Pakistanis need to become aware of their own cultural traditions and Asian identity rather than primarily identifying with a Middle Eastern identity. All political parties and citizens need to make sure that army officers stay in the army barracks and not take over the parliament in the future.

For some people it might seem like a dream but all nations have to dream before the dream comes true. If Pakistanis did not fulfill that dream, I am afraid their dream might turn into a violent nightmare in the not so distant future.